000			01351nab a22002417a 4500
001			RESUM-017294
003			EC-BCE
005			20130908152826.0
040			_aEC-BCE _cEC-BCE
100			_aWolf, Martin
245			_aCOMPLACENCY TRAP
520			_aThe policymakers must guard against a crisis of over-confidence. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development offers a guardedly optimistic analysis in its latest forecasts. It notes, in particular, that the policy actions recently taken in the US should prevent further damage. Its central forecast for 1999 is world growth at 2.1 per cent, followed by a recovery to 2.9 per cent in 2000. This includes 1999 growth of only 0.2 per cent in Japan, but 1.5 per cent in the US and 2.2 per cent in the European Union (giving 1.7 per cent in the OECD region as a whole). Economic growth outside the OECD was 5 per cent in 1997; it is expected to fall to 1.7 per cent this year, before recovering, modestly, to 2.5 per cent in 1999 a 3.8 per cent in 2000.
650			_aOCDE CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO PREDICCIONES ECONOMICAS ESTADOS UNIDOS EUROPA TASA DE INTERES
650			_aPREDICCIONES ECONOMICAS
650			_aOCDE
650			_a03
651			_aUS
651			_aXE
651			_aXZ
650			_a3ext121
773			_tFinancial Times _dLondres _g18 nov. 1998, p. 18
942			_2z _cAS
999			_c29667 _d29667