TY  - SER
AU  - Wolf, Martin
TI  - COMPLACENCY TRAP
KW  - OCDE CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO PREDICCIONES ECONOMICAS ESTADOS UNIDOS EUROPA TASA DE INTERES
KW  - PREDICCIONES ECONOMICAS
KW  - OCDE
KW  - 03
KW  - 3ext121
KW  - US
KW  - XE
KW  - XZ
N2  - The policymakers must guard against a crisis of over-confidence. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development offers a guardedly optimistic analysis in its latest forecasts. It notes, in particular, that the policy actions recently taken in the US should prevent further damage. Its central forecast for 1999 is world growth at 2.1 per cent, followed by a recovery to 2.9 per cent in 2000. This includes 1999 growth of only 0.2 per cent in Japan, but 1.5 per cent in the US and 2.2 per cent in the European Union (giving 1.7 per cent in the OECD region as a whole). Economic growth outside the OECD was 5 per cent in 1997; it is expected to fall to 1.7 per cent this year, before recovering, modestly, to 2.5 per cent in 1999 a 3.8 per cent in 2000
ER  -